The defeat of the UK Labour Party in Scotland on Thursday (24th July 2008) by the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP), in one of its safest Westminster parliamentary seats, does not bode well for Labour throughout the rest of the UK and is a positive development in the SNP's drive towards independence.

The SNP candidate John Mason took the Glasgow parliamentary seat by just 365 votes, but this represented a swing to the SNP of 22 % of the electorate. The loss of Glasgow East to the SNP is the second significant loss by the Labour Party in the UK in recent months. In May 2008, Labour lost another traditionally safe seat in the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, England to the Conservative Party with a swing to the Conservatives of 17.6% and similarly caused massive political reverberations.

The loss of a significant percentage of the votes in Wales and England - including many Council seats - by the Labour Party earlier this year, saw Gordon Brown's credentials as the Party's Leader being called into question. With the continued downturn in the UK economy since the beginning of the year, the resignation of the Labour Party Leader in Scotland last month, Brown's abysmal record of defending himself and his Party's actions in the Westminster Parliament and now the two huge defeats for Labour in Scotland and England, it can safely be said that the prime Minister's standing as Labour Leader has been severely damaged.

Whether this culmination of almost monthly catastrophes will now lead Brown's own Party members to call a vote of no confidence in their Leader remains to be seen. It is likely though that if this happens, an early election is more than likely to be called for and this will probably spell the end of three terms in Government for Labour. With support for the SNP among the Scottish electorate being stronger than ever before, Plaid Cymru gaining more votes at the last elections in May than at any time in its history and the Conservative Party in England looking fresher than it has done for many years, a General Election in the UK would no doubt put a Conservative Government into power in Westminster, which can only work in the SNP's favour.

Strangely enough, under a Westminster Conservative Government, the Union will surely become more fragile than at any time since the Act of Union in 1801 – as indeed also predicted by the Conservative Party Deputy Leader in Scotland earlier this year - and to all intents and purposes could pave the way for a positive result in the planned Scottish referendum in 2010. However in politics 2010 is indeed a long way into the future, but what is certain is that the SNP election victory in Glasgow has strengthened the hopes of an independent Scotland within the next few years.

Glasgow East was previously held by long time Labour Member of Parliament David Marshall who stepped down due to ill health and consequently left his seat open for by election.

(Article compiled for Celtic News by Rhisiart Tal-e-bot Celtic League General Secretary)

J B Moffatt Director of Information Celtic League

27/07/08

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