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On 23rd April another election will take place in one of the Celtic countries, as the people of Brittany vote in the first round of the French Presidential elections. This election follows on from the north of Ireland Stormont Assembly elections last March 7th. On May 3rd there will also be elections in Cornwall, Scotland and Wales, but will any of these elections signal a change for the Celtic countries in terms of greater autonomy? There will also be a General Election in the south of Ireland later this year.
Ireland
The first election this year was in the north of Ireland where people participated in elections for the Stormont Assembly on 7 th March. This led to a power sharing government with the loyalist DUP's Ian Paisley as First Minister and nationalist Sinn Féin's Martin McGuiness taking the Deputy Minister post.
Turnout was marginally higher at the polls than in the 2003 elections and in the words of Sinn Fein, the agreement "marks the beginning of a new era of politics on this island". It does finally seem that things are moving forward again, but the test of this will be over the next few years once the Assembly Government has had a chance to work together.
Meanwhile in the south, General Elections will also soon be called for the 30th Dáil Éireann. Indeed Sinn Féin could indeed hold the balance of power in these elections as they are widely tipped to increase their representation. As the only all Ireland political party, if Sinn Féin secures a more significant share of the vote it could indeed prove interesting in the Six Counties. Currently, Ireland's Government is made up of a Fianna Fáil-Progressive Democrat coalition.
Brittany
In the French Presidential elections affecting Brittany, of those nationalists who go out to vote, the opinion of who to elect to the most powerful position in the state remains divided. L'Union Démocratique Bretonne (UDB) are calling on their members to vote for the Green candidate Dominique Voynet. Voynet has called for France's ratification of the European Charter for Regional and Minority languages and a reunified Brittany.
Voynet however, has no chance of getting through to the second round of elections, so many Breton nationalists may not vote for her at all in the hope of preventing the much feared Niolas Sarkozy from gaining power, who could set the Breton cause back years. On the other hand Segolénè Royal, even though some are saying that she supports important changes, her track record does not suggest that things will change for the better should she win. On the contrary she is all too likely to maintain the status quo, which is a situation that Brittany needs to move away from at all costs.
Some nationalists in Breizh therefore are calling for a vote for the surprise candidate Francois Bayou, who has also called for the reunification of Brittany and the French ratification of the European Charter mentioned above. The difference between him and Royal however is that Bayrou is a speaker of Occitan himself. He has also promised to increase democracy in the state, increase devolution and ensure a better balance of power. However during election time talk is cheap and Bayrou, no one really knowing what he is capable of, may be just appealing to Breton sentiments.
Cornwall
In Cornwall, Mebyon Kernow is fielding more candidates than they have ever done before in the district, town and parish council elections. In total, thirty four different people have been nominated and it is already known that eleven town and parish council candidates have been returned unopposed where there were insufficient nominations to force a contest, including three seats on Truro city council. In addition, over the last few months a number of councillors have joined MK from other parties.
Nevertheless Cornwall is still largely dominated by the Liberal Democrats, who despite having representatives on virtually every council and hold all 5 parliamentary seats, have done very little for the Cornish cause. Recently it is being widely felt that the Lib Dem dominated Celtic nation is actually holding progress and democracy up. Let's hope that the people of Cornwall make this clear in May and vote for the nationalist cause.
Wales
Plaid Cymru have recently launched an advertising campaign in an attempt to simply get people out to vote (for anyone) in the forthcoming elections, when it was estimated that less than 40% of the electorate are expected to turn out. The elections, for the Welsh Assembly Government, could prove important for Plaid who is being tipped to form a future coalition Government. There is currently speculation about whom Plaid would form an alliance with and despite very public accusations from Labour that Plaid will form a coalition with the Conservatives if they gained significant control, this claim is as preposterous as it sounds. It is more likely that should Plaid increase their representation in the Assembly, some sort of alliance with the Liberal Democrats seems closer to the truth.
On the other hand the Green Party Wales/Plaid Werdd Cymru will also be contesting all Welsh Assembly seats in Wales this May and depending on their success, a reaffirmation of the Plaid/Green pact would be a welcome development. Plaid already shares their Parliamentary grouping with the Greens in the European Parliament under the European Free Alliance.
At this time it does indeed seem a straight contest between Plaid and Labour for control of the Assembly, but no doubt about it, a return of a Labour Government with reduced Plaid representation would be a knock for the devolution process.
Scotland
In Scotland the electioneering campaign is being vigorously fought, with Labour visibly looking concerned by the increase in support of the Scottish Nationalist Party. The SNP have promised a referendum on independence if they get into Government in 2010 and with opinion polls suggesting that Labour's current majority looks set to fall in 2007, opening the way up for a possible SNP-Liberal Democrat coalition Government that could also extend to the Scottish Greens, it certainly seems that this is one promise that could well be honoured.
The 3rd May election will come just two days after the tercentenary of the Act of Union between Scotland and England and whether Labour will use this anniversary to foster loyalist support remains to be seen. Recent public support for independence from respected international business and political leaders such as Sir George Mathewson, the former chairman of the Royal Bank of Scotland and Mr Gerry Collins, former Irish Foreign Minister and Member of the European Parliament, have embarrassed Labour Prime Minister Blair and along with him the Scottish Labour Executive.
Conclusions
This year is certainly a year of elections for the Celtic countries. All countries, excepting the Isle of Mann (Mannin had a General Election in November 2006 which brought little change - government policy is still based on financial services with the untrammelled immigration that sustains), will experience some sort of election this year and the changes that have and are predicted to take place will indeed show their influence in the coming years, hopefully to the benefit of our different nations.
The real major concern to the League in these elections is the possible consequences for Brittany if the current French Presidential favourite, Sarkozy, secures office. Sarkozy is a man who does not or cannot see that Brittany exists as a distinct Celtic cultural and linguist entity in its own right. For him the French state is all important and no other culture or language exists inside the state, except French.
Indeed Sarkozy is a real threat for the political, democratic, cultural and linguistic development of Brittany and if he is elected the Breton nationalist movement, including the League, will really have its work cut out.
(Report compiled by Rhisiart Tal-e-bot - Celtic League Secretary General)
J B Moffatt Director of Information Celtic League
15/04/07
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